JailBreak

On January 11 Donald Trump famously said: “Why do we want all these people from ‘shithole countries’ coming here?” and the outrage was unanimous and quick. Most prominent was Sen. Cory Booker (D, NJ) who was variously quoted as follows:

the most vile and vulgar language… give others license to hate, to reflect that kind of ignorance and bigotry… He seems to think that the countries of origins of some Americans are less worthy than the countries of origin of others…this kind of ignorance, this kind of bigotry, is so toxic–not only is it hurtful to individuals, it’s causing problems in our country

So I’m wondering, where’s the ignorance? Where’s the bigotry? Is it not self-evident that some countries are ‘less worthy’? I’ve personally visited more than one country that quite clearly matches Trump’s description. According to CNN, Trump was referring specifically to Haiti. I’ve never been to Haiti, but news reports make it sound worse than the shithole countries I’ve personally visited.

For the sake of discussion, compare Haiti and Singapore. Both are former colonies: Haiti was a French colony up until 1804, Singapore was a British colony until 1956. Their paths since then are different, and instructive.

Singapore
Singapore was largely destroyed during the Japanese occupation in World War 2. Conditions immediately after the war are described in a Wikipedia article: “violence and disorder; looting and revenge-killing… shortage of food leading to malnutrition, disease, and rampant crime and violence. High food prices, unemployment…massive stoppages in public transport and other services.”

Singapore gained independence in 1956. Today:

Singapore is a global commerce, finance and transport hub. Its standings include: the most “technology-ready” nation (World Economic Forum), top International-meetings city (Union of International Associations), city with “best investment potential” (Business Environment Risk Index), third-most competitive country, third-largest foreign exchange market, third-largest financial centre, third-largest oil refining and trading centre and the second-busiest container port…ranks 5th on the UN Human Development Index and the 3rd highest GDP per capita…ranked highly in education, healthcare, life expectancy, quality of life, personal safety and housing…90% of homes are owner-occupied.

Haiti
Haiti began its history as a prosperous French colony. According to an article in The Guardian, a left-leaning British newspaper: “In the 18th century, under French rule, Haiti – then called Saint-Domingue – was the Pearl of the Antilles, one of the richest islands in France’s empire”. Haiti gained independence from France in 1804, and today is ranked near the bottom on any meaningful metric of prosperity or development. If you read up on Haiti on the internet, you find titles like “Haiti: a long descent to hell” and “Why is Haiti such a poor country?”

The Guardian article also pointed out one telling factoid: Haiti has two fire stations. That’s not two fire stations in its largest city, but two fire stations in the entire country. More from The Guardian: “poverty, illiteracy, overcrowding, no infrastructure, environmental disaster and large areas without the rule of law.”

In 200 years Haiti goes from ‘hero to zero’. Singapore goes from ‘zero to hero’ in sixty years.

Why the difference?
Here’s a clue – see the World Bank’s index for ‘ease of doing business’. Singapore ranks 2nd. Haiti ranks 181 out of 190. (To gauge how seriously this index is taken, see in this article an analysis of why and how India moved up three spots in the 2017 ranking of 190 countries.)

What’s the secret to Singapore’s success? An article on the NPR website pointed to “very, very free trade, very low tariffs [and] very few non-tariff barriers…They’ll boast about how you can start your own company in Singapore in three hours.”

HuffPost, formerly The Huffington Post and typically left-of-center, pointed to a formula that seems right out of a Protestant self-help guide: “Singapore’s success is due to MPH: Meritocracy, Pragmatism and Honesty”.

Why is Haiti floundering? The ease of doing business index tells me one thing: whoever is in charge doesn’t want prosperity for Haiti. Haiti seems unwilling and incapable of helping itself.

I propose we create a “Shithole Country Index”, to include countries listed in the bottom twenty on both of two World Bank lists: GDP per Capita and Ease of Doing Business. One list indicates success or lack of it, the other indicates level of effort.

If you’re a country that is simultaneously a complete failure and also not even trying, then you’re legitimately a shithole country. The winners are…our first members of the Shithole Country Index:

• Central African Republic
• Eritrea
• Democratic Republic of Congo
• Guinea-Bissau
• Haiti
• East Timor
• Central African Republic
• Liberia

The Bottom Line
Donald Trump should not have used the words he used. Regardless, the fact that ‘shithole countries’ exist is self-evident.
However, how we prioritize immigrants from all countries is a matter for discussion, hopefully without accusations of racism.

It’s been the decade of leaks, famously this trio:

• Edward Snowden, 2013
• Chelsea Manning, 2010
• Julian Assange, 2010

All of the above were involved in leaking secret military data, harming national security and risking the lives of US military and government personnel. Each of these three is celebrated by the left.

On the other hand, there is a debate this week about the possible release of a memo written by Republican legislators on the House Intelligence Committee. The memo, if released, will be released by the legally constituted authorities, after full legal review. The New York Times editorial board trumpeted as follows:

unbridled self-interest and bottomless bad faith…undermining the credibility of the law enforcement community…nothing to do with truth or accountability…misleading propaganda…cut-and-paste job…There’s so much deception and obfuscation going on here that it’s hard to know where to start…shows a profound ignorance …junior high school pranksters…The question is whether there are any adults left in the G.O.P…the consequences — and the rest of America — be damned.

Of course, the NYT editorial board hasn’t read the memo yet, it hasn’t been released. Yet they know all these things about it, and have reached their considered and temperate judgement.

Set aside the contents of a memo none of us has read. I’ll even concede for the sake of argument that maybe it shouldn’t be released. Focus just on the contrast between the three leakers on one hand; and lawful actions by elected officials, the duly constituted authorities, on the other hand.

Presumably many of the people who applauded Manning, Snowden and Assange, now oppose the release of the House memo. This is the position they find themselves taking:

• unauthorized releases are good, but
• this authorized release is bad

Hypocrisy.

The Bottom Line
Looking forward this weekend to a re-reading of Animal Farm:

“All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others…Four legs good, two legs better!”

Yes, I have this feeling things are not going well, and it seems I’m not the only one. See these recent articles from The Guardian and New Scientist. And we were doing so well. For centuries our world was on a clear path of improvement. Freedom and democracy expanding, knowledge and technical ability increasing, prosperity and wealth growing. Western civilization has been on an upward path since the beginning of the Enlightenment, right? Darwin, the Suez Canal, Wright Brothers, penicillin, first man on the moon…upward and onward.

We built a wall, we built the pyramids.
Math, science, history, unraveling the mysteries.
It all started with the big bang!

‘Big Bang Theory’ theme lyrics

But no more. Mankind is facing terrible and daunting problems, and in fact the decline has already started. I assumed we all saw the same things and had reached the same conclusion, until I heard someone say that “liberals are optimists and conservatives are pessimists”, implying that liberals actually believe the world is getting better! True?

My guess is that the authors of the Guardian and New Scientist articles are actually new converts to the doom and gloom school. Until recently the sophisticated class seemed convinced we were on an upward path, citing trends like these as evidence:

• Modern medicine has increased life spans, and the increases continue.
• Violence has been declining for centuries, and the decline continues.
• We’re better educated than ever before.
• We’re wealthier than ever before, and global wealth inequality is at an all-time low.

All of these are reasonable points, although I would argue the point about the decline in violence.

Here is my list of terrible problems:

Death of the oceans Whether the cause is acidification, microplastics, over-fishing, or global warming, there are no feasible solutions available. The oceans cover 71% of the earth’s surface and contain 97% of the earth’s water. The ocean is doomed, therefore we’re doomed.

Nuclear holocaust If a nuclear war starts we’re likely all dead, and a recent Newsweek headline blared (yes, in all caps): TRUMP COULD CREATE NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST IN FIVE MINUTES.

Antibiotic resistance leading to a pandemic According to an article on the Reuters news web site: “Infections resistant to antibiotics are the greatest threat to human health, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned last month, and by 2050 some 50 million people a year may be dying of drug resistant infections”.

Groundwater pollution Almost all the water we use for agriculture, industry and drinking water is either groundwater or was groundwater at some point. We’re polluting our groundwater with leaking storage tanks, septic systems and landfills; and overuse of road salts, fertilizer and pesticides. The cost of cleaning polluted groundwater sites in the US was estimated in a 2012 report from the National Academy of Sciences at $127 billion. An article in The Guardian reports that nearly 60% of groundwater in China is polluted. Northwesterners are familiar with the never-ending cleanup at Hanford, which is all about groundwater and keeping radioactive contaminants out of the Columbia River. See the bottom photo on this DOE page, and this pdf from the environmental group Columbia Riverkeeper.

US government debt As of 12/21/17 US government debt was estimated at 104% of GDP, and increasing. See the following chart from the US Federal Reserve.

I see two dividing lines in the getting better versus getting worse debate. One is geographic: people in North America and Europe see the world on a downhill trend, the rest of the world, notably China, is more optimistic. See the chart below, from the American Council on Science and Health.

The second dividing line is based on time: some people seem frightened by the political tone following the 2016 elections in the US. Note that the optimistic articles I cited above are all pre-2016, and that the articles from The Guardian and New Scientist are post-election and focus on political factors:

• Political strife, crippling inequality and climate change mean the West’s time is now up.
• Environmental breakdown, coupled with the self-destructive behaviour of governments, has set us on a road to ruin.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Is the world getting better, or worse? Maybe if you’re Chinese you have reasons for optimism, but I think the Chinese are ignoring facts that we’re all facing in common. Maybe engineering fixes using technologies like CO2 removal and water filtering will save our bacon…if we don’t kill ourselves in a nuclear war.